We have written 100s of articles over the last 1 year. But this is a different approach altogether. Based on feedback from various stakeholders extending in to the vast retail ecosystem in India and globally, we present our first ever “Retail Horoscope” for May 2022. Caveat Emptor, as always. So, while you can depend on our predictions, please do use your diligence, expertise and experience while arriving at outcomes. This is just an indicator, after all. And certainly not based on the traditional horoscope reading based on movement of Planets!Editor in-Chief
Here’s our prediction for May 2022 for the 12 retail verticals.
1) FMCG & Grocery Retail
Amongst the most coveted and largest part of the estimated USD 800 Bn Retail Industry, the business is expected to see a slump in the peak summer month that is May (2022). While the sun is scorching on one side, the inflation on FMCG will certainly impact sellers & manufactures. Consumers will be weary of over spending, especially with kids being at home due to summer vacations. Brace up for a slow season this month.
2) Hypermarkets & Supermarkets
While Organised retail is around 10% of the overall Grocery retail, this industry will witness a slump in May just like the over all FMCG retail. With vacations around the corner, a number of families who would otherwise visit large and smaller format stores, will now fill their pantry lesser than usual. The ongoing IPL season, which has been a mixed bag all along, hasn’t garnered huger viewership, which earlier used to propel a lot of at-home consumption of colas, juices & snacks.
3) Quick Commerce
Quick Commerce has been the latest buzz in e-commerce retail in India over the past 1 year, thanks to intermittent lockdowns and consumers shopping from their mobiles. Q-Comm apps like Zepto & Dunzo offer a 10-30 min window for delivery of grocery & household. This model has been catching up in urban India, especially over the last 6 months. However, the part seems to be over. Deep discounting on most items has been removed and some Apps even charging extra for instant delivery. Needless to say, this model will find a strain in this month as well since it is directly linked to FMCG & Grocery Retail
4) Stand-alone Restaurants
Stand-alone eateries have seen an uptick in diners as late as Dec. ‘21 onwards and the trend seems to be only getting better. On one side, at home dining through online deliveries have dwindled – cost of deliveries have gone up as well as consumers stepping out for a meal. Corporate outings and dinners fill the place on weekdays while families fill up the places on weekends. Most small and mid-size restaurants have signalled a revival while the boutique and gourmet restaurants are running full amidst booking of tables by large groups. Anticipate a great month indeed.
5) QSR & Foodcourts
Holidays and QSRs go hand in hand. While this would be the lowest price point for most middle class families, this is also the go-to place for students (on vacation mode), office goers as well as the semi-urban class consumers. The QSRs – in big cities as well as in smaller towns, especially in holiday destinations would see a huge up-tick. Most consumers would prefer in-person dining over online deliveries which could increase the affinity with the eateries as well as push ABVs.
6) Electronics Retail
Summer 2022 is the undeclared “Year of the Consumer Durables”. On one side, there is a pent-up demand to buy household articles such as Refridgerators, Washing machines & Air-conditioner units. While personal use items such as TV sets, Laptops, etc. have been flying off the shelves for the past 18 months, the brown goods are more at a family / household level. These purchases have been deferred all along and may finally see a big rise in sales.
7) Malls & Shopping Centres
Most mall operators have reported their highest footfalls during April 2022, some even higher than 2019 numbers. The reason for this being Ugadi / Bihu / Baisakhi / Tamil New Year and Ramzan – all of which collided in the same month. Though Sales conversions inside the vanilla stores could be a tad lower in May, overall footfalls will be steady (as April) and maybe bit more too, due to scorching summer & vacations.
8) Multiplexes / Theatres
As mentioned above, the exhibition (of movies) business will see brisk business in the month of May – many viewers watching the film second time or more, while many others visiting Malls and Shopping Centres for the pleasure of walking down the aisles, which they have missed a lot in the past 2 years. The fact that almost all parking areas (for 2W & 4W) have seen 80% or more occupancy in April is a clear indication that the crowds are simply waiting to visit malls.
9) Fashion Retail
Department Stores, Large Format Stores as well as Vanilla stores in the fashion space will continue to see huge footfalls. Most companies and Corporates have opened their doors for employees, so it is but natural for consumers to refresh their wardrobes. From day today office wear – including formals and semi formals all the way to athleisure and comfort wear, business will be brisk, especially given the fact that June & July spends would largely be for back-to-school / college expenses.
Perfumes, Cosmetics, Watches, Sunglasses, Footwear – the most commonly purchases accessories would see an uptick in Sales in May. With most people preferring to step out on a vacation after 2 years probably – no matter how short / how inexpensive it is, the sales of accessories will certainly increase this month. The increase is sales will also come from non-domiciled people, that is those who are travelling from their base to another city and buy there.
11) Fitness & Athleisure
Whether the society at large agrees or not, it is a given that people’s lifestyle have changed tremendously over the past 2 years due to stay at home, work from home and education at home. Doctor visits for lifestyle diseases such as Diabetes and Obesity are on the rise. The benefit from this is the fitness category will continue to see a spike in sales. From basic model bicycles to gym wear, from running & walking shoes to tread mills / exercise equipment, sales will continue to rise over the next few months, with May being the starting point of a long journey ahead.
12) Luggage & Travel
With vacations in plan, sales of luggage, travel accessories, etc. will increase in May like never before. Stores located in Airport especially will probably see a significant impulse purchase, even in Domestic terminals. The trend would not be short-lived, as business travel (international included) would witness a surge in the coming months. So, retailers should just brace up for supplies & options from the backend to fulfil consumer needs.
PS: These are our predictions based on the trend in the past 4-5 years, assuming various combinations. Needless to say, every Retailer / Brand shall strive their best to get the most wallet-share from consumers.