A joint report by Deloitte and FICCI, titled Spotting India’s PRIME Innovation Moment, projects India’s retail sector to grow from USD 1.06 Trn in 2024 to USD 1.93 trillion by 2030, clocking a 10% CAGR.
Quick commerce is arguably the report’s most striking data point.
India is now the world’s first scaled quick-commerce market, operating across 80-plus cities at a CAGR of 70–80% — the fastest anywhere on the planet.
Online retail is expected to more than triple — from USD 75 Bn to US$ 260 billion — expanding its share of total retail from 7% to 14%.
Consumer preference for homegrown brands is strengthening — 68% favour Indian brands in Food & Beverages, 55% in Home Décor and 53% in Personal Care.
Sustainability is no longer optional; over 60% of Gen Z and millennials prefer brands with transparent environmental practices.
Anand Ramanathan, Partner & ConsumerIndustry Leader, Deloitte South Asia said, “India’s consumer ecosystem is entering a defining decade, fuelled by a young, digitally fluent population, an expanding middle class and the rising economic influence of Tier II and III cities, which now account for over 60 percent of e-commerce transactions.
In the current environment of evolving tariff realignments and expanding FTAs, India’s deep domestic consumption base not only sustains growth at home but also creates a strong springboard for global competitiveness, positioning Indian products to capture new market share overseas.
The next wave of growth will be driven less by distribution expansion and more by the ability of FMCG, retail, and e-commerce players to anticipate and respond to shifting consumer behaviours, regional nuances and the demand for purpose-led innovation.
Hyper-personalised experiences, omni-channel integration and localised, sustainable manufacturing will be the critical levers.
With decisive action and strategic foresight, India can double its retail market to nearly US$1.9 trillion by 2030 while setting global benchmarks for resilience, innovation and sustainability in the consumer sector.”
Generation Z is a force that cannot be ignored.
The cohort is set to account for 43% of India’s total consumption in 2025, with a direct spending power of US$ 250 billion.
Online marketplaces influence 73% of their purchase decisions, while peer recommendations (51%) and YouTube reviews (40%) have quietly overtaken traditional influencer marketing as the most trusted discovery channels.
Geography is shifting too. Tier II and III cities now account for over 60% of all e-commerce transactions, driven by faster internet penetration and rising disposable incomes.
Editor’s Note
A report of this nature, jointly produced by Deloitte and FICCI, carries the weight of two institutions that have long tracked India’s consumption story with rigour and institutional memory, making its projections harder to dismiss as optimistic noise.
The quick commerce number — a 70 to 80% CAGR across 80-plus cities — is the kind of data point that should prompt every FMCG and lifestyle brand operating in India to urgently revisit its last-mile distribution strategy and channel investment priorities.
What is perhaps most consequential for retailers is the geographic rebalancing, where Tier II and III cities now drive the majority of e-commerce volumes, signalling that India’s next consumption wave will not be led by its metros but by its smaller, faster-growing urban centres.
The rising preference for Indian-made brands across food, home décor and personal care is not a policy-driven trend but a genuine shift in consumer identity, one that both domestic brands and international entrants must factor into their positioning and assortment decisions going forward.
Source: Deloitte–FICCI, ‘Spotting India’s PRIME Innovation Moment,’ 2025. E&OE.
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